Affected by the epidemic in the first half of the year, the global economy suffered a severe recession, and TV demand was sluggish; in the second half of the year, with the rise of the "home economy" in overseas markets, the market quickly emerged from the haze. The demand for main display terminal products increased sharply, and TV panels appeared to be in short supply. , Panel prices have entered a long growth cycle.
The huge change in the industry pattern has touched the imbalance between supply and demand of TV panels
According to AVC REVO's "AVC Industry Chain-TV Panel Global Shipment Monthly Data Report", TV panel shipments in the first three quarters were 201.7M, a year-on-year decrease of 6.6%, and the TV panel shipment area was 125.1M㎡. A year-on-year increase of 3%. The decline in shipments was mainly affected by factors such as the exit of Korean factory production capacity, the shift of TV production capacity to other display panels, and the large-size panel shipments.
Looking at the sub-panel factory:
BOE’s shipment volume in the first three quarters was 34.6M, a year-on-year decrease of 15%, and the shipment area was 22.3M, a year-on-year increase of 3%. Shipment volume and shipment area remained the first; Wuhan G10.5 production capacity continued to climb, driving large-size production With a substantial increase in shipments, 43”/65”/75” shipments rank first in the world. After the acquisition of CEC-panda, BOE production capacity expanded rapidly, product structure complemented, VA technology and a large amount of Oxide production capacity increased, and the industry's first position cannot be shaken.
INX’s shipment volume in the first three quarters was 31.3M, a year-on-year decrease of 4%, ranking second, with a shipment area of 14M㎡, a year-on-year decrease of 6%. INX continued to deepen its efforts in the small-size market, ranking first in the world with 50” shipments, 32”/43” Shipments also increased rapidly.
CSOT shipped 30.8M in the first three quarters of this year, an increase of 2% year-on-year; the shipment area was 20.3 M㎡, a significant increase of 38% year-on-year, ranking second and narrowing the gap with the first place. CSOT 55” is the world’s largest shipment, accounting for 32%. 65/75” shipments are also growing rapidly. The CSOT Shenzhen T7 production line will be mass-produced in the first quarter of next year, and large-size shipments will continue to expand. After CSOT acquired Samsung's Suzhou production line, panel production capacity has been rapidly expanded.
HKC shipped 22.7M, a significant year-on-year increase of 72%, surpassing Korean factories and ranking fourth. Shipment area increased by 106% year-on-year. In terms of products, the monthly shipment volume of HKC 32” has been ranked first in the world, and shipments of 50”/58” have increased rapidly. The HKC Mianyang production line has been mass-produced in the third quarter, with the first shipments of 23.8” and 43”.
LGD’s shipment volume was 20.2M, a year-on-year decrease of 43%, and the shipment area was 15.1M㎡, a year-on-year decrease of 35%. The panel price in the second half of the year returned. At present, the Guangzhou LCD factory is back to full production, and the P7 production line will be closed for one year. LGD Guangzhou OLED factory has already mass-produced and shipped, but this year the epidemic has inhibited the popularity of high-end OLED TVs.
SDC’s shipment volume was 19.4M, a year-on-year decrease of 20%, and the shipment area was 13.9M, a year-on-year decrease of 18%. At the end of March, SDC announced that it would withdraw from the LCD market at the end of the year. In the first half of the year, the production line utilization rate was gradually reduced, and the production line utilization rate in the third quarter. It is raised again, and the production line shutdown plan will be changed again.
AUO’s shipment volume was 15.2M, a year-on-year decrease of 19%, and the shipment area decreased by 9%. AUO is actively shipping high-end large-size panels.
CEC-Panda shipped 11.7M, an increase of 40% year-on-year, and the shipment area increased by 39% year-on-year. Products tend to be diversified, with shipments of 43”, 50”, 58” and 70” all increasing year-on-year.
CHOT’s shipment volume was 9.7M, a year-on-year increase of 23%, and the shipment area was 6.7M㎡, a year-on-year increase of 41%. The shipments of 50", 58" and 70" increased year-on-year.
In the second quarter, the mass production of Sharp Guangzhou's 10.5-generation line climbed. The overall shipment volume was 6.1M, a year-on-year increase of 44%, and the shipment area increased by 64%.
TV demand began to recover in the third quarter, brand manufacturers increased panel purchases, and the inventory level of panel makers continued to fall. According to AVC REVO's "AVC Industry Chain-Global LCD TV Panel Production, Sales and Inventory Monthly Report" data, it entered 7 In January, the panel factory inventory has reached the bottom of the safe range and is expected to remain below the safe range until the end of this year.
After the epidemic broke out at the beginning of the year, we predict that global TV brand shipments will decline in 2020. Now, global TV shipments are much better than expected. It is expected to achieve a year-on-year growth of 1.4%. Especially in some developed countries, TV demand has recovered rapidly. TV shipments in the North American market are expected to grow by more than 16% year-on-year, giving the market a lot of confidence.
Insufficient supply of TV panels and rapid increase in panel demand have led to a serious imbalance between panel supply and demand. The tight supply and demand situation will cover the entire year of this year and may last until the third quarter of 2021.
Panel prices have entered a skyrocket, and the growth momentum is expected to continue until the end of the year
This year, TV panel prices experienced huge fluctuations in the short term. Entering June, as TV demand in overseas markets resumes, panel supply exceeds supply, and TV panel prices have risen. At the end of September compared with the beginning of the year, the price of key sizes increased by an average of 33%. 32" increased by 47%; while panel demand remained high in the fourth quarter, the upward trend of panel prices is expected to remain until the end of the year.
Opportunities and challenges brought by panel price increases
At present, TV panel prices have returned to above the breakeven level of panel makers, bringing a rare opportunity to the market and injecting more confidence in the operation of panel makers. Panel makers did not perform well in the first half of the year and will turn losses into profits in the second half.
However, the increase in panel prices also brings challenges. For example, the domestic market was originally a stock competition market. TV brands used price wars to stimulate consumer demand. The increase in panel prices has been transmitted to the whole machine market, and the increase in machine prices will inhibit Consumer demand of the terminal.