Supply part: The impact of the Coronavirus epidemic on the production of large-sized panels, the impact of the rear-stage module is much greater than the highly automated front-end process. As of February, Open Cell is the main type of TV panel. The estimated gap between shipments is only 9.8%. In contrast, monitors and notebook panels with modules as the main shipment type. The gaps between actual and estimated shipments in February were 25.5% and 29.9, respectively. %, It can be seen that the impact of the epidemic on IT panel shipments is much greater than that of TV panels. As the epidemic situation in mainland China slows down, panel supply will also gradually recover. It is estimated that in March there will be a chance to reach more than 85% of the original production plan. In April, the supply capacity will move towards more than 90%.
In terms of annual shipments, as TV panel prices gradually pick up, panel makers ’willingness to produce TV panels has also become more positive in 2020, but under the influence of Korean panel makers' continued convergence in capacity, estimated panel shipments Still down 4% from 2019. As the supply of IT panels gradually stabilizes, the supply chain including foundries will try to make up for the shipment gap caused by the epidemic in the second and third quarters. There is a 3.4% growth in 2019; notebook panel shipments are expected to grow 0.4% over 2019.
Demand part: Brand manufacturers have not reduced the demand for orders from panel factories due to the impact of the Coronavirus epidemic. Brand manufacturers want to step up production in Q1 and Q2 to make up for the production gap caused by factory shutdowns.
In terms of brand terminals:
The impact of Coronavirus on the TV industry began in mainland China. Measures such as city closures, store closures, postponed resumption of work, and sea, land, and air traffic restrictions since February have not only impacted TV purchases, but also caused shortages in the supply chain's production end. Work shortage and other issues. Although the epidemic situation in mainland China gradually came under control after March, the epidemic situation in Europe and the United States accelerated, which gradually closed the city and even locked the country. In addition, the plunge of stock markets in various countries severely damaged financial markets, and also seriously affected consumer confidence.
Due to the current pressure of the production and sales sides of the TV market, in addition to reducing the global first quarter shipments to 44.6 million units, compared with the 48.8 million units estimated before the epidemic, a decrease of 8.6%, the second Quarterly shipments were also reduced from 47.6 million units estimated before the outbreak to 44.1 million units, a correction of 7.3%. In addition, the European Cup and Tokyo Olympic Games, which were originally scheduled to be held this year, have been announced to be postponed to 2021, further impacting TV demand. Therefore, the total TV shipments in 2020 are also reduced to 205.2 million units, which is more severe than the epidemic situation. The previous forecast was a decline of 6.7% and an annual decrease of 5.8%. As the epidemic situation in North America and emerging Asia has also begun to increase, it is not ruled out that the annual TV shipments will be revised again in the future.
Due to the impact of the epidemic in February, the production capacity of the top six foundries, which are mainly located in mainland China, was severely affected. For this reason, Chibond cut its first quarter notebook shipments to 27.9 million, which is higher than the estimate before the outbreak. Of 35.0 million units, a significant reduction of 20.3%. After the epidemic situation in mainland China slowed down, the foundry factory fully started to recruit and prepare materials, and the production capacity utilization rate was restored to 70% in just one month. At the same time, it is expected that the material end of the upstream production should be fully restored by May. Normal delivery.
Although the demand for Chromebooks for education and Work from Home for business laptops began at the end of March, Europe and the United States, a market that encompasses more than 50% of the overall sales of laptops, began to spread in March. I am afraid the impact on consumer confidence is next It is not possible to calm down in a short period of time. Not only the short-term buying gas cooling, but even the abnormal phenomenon of the second half of Thanksgiving and Christmas season is not worth buying. Considering the uncertainty of the demand side in the future, Jibon Consulting reduced the shipment of laptops in 2020 to 156.7 million units, a 3.5% decrease from the estimated 162.4 million units before the outbreak.
(3) smart phones
Due to the weak performance of the global economy due to the epidemic situation, which directly hits the demand for terminal consumer electronics, the market impact on the smartphone industry is mainly reflected in the postponement of demand, the extension cycle is extended, and the average consumption of individual machines (ASP) is reduced. . In terms of brand market share, due to the increase in personnel expenditure in the industrial supply chain and the trade gap, its profit performance will continue to deteriorate, and brand market share may face reshuffle. With the rapid spread of the epidemic around the world, Chibond Consulting reduced the total number of smartphones produced in 2020 to 1.29 billion, a decline of 7.8% compared to last year, mainly reflecting the global financial shock in the second quarter, of which the epidemic was severe. European and American markets have the most impact. The biggest financial turmoil in the past century has also caused more variables in the subsequent development. As the epidemic situation has not yet eased, it will make it difficult to see the prosperity in the second half of the year, and the decline in the mobile phone market may further expand.
The impact of Coronavirus on the global automotive industry has further deteriorated. The original impact on markets outside mainland China was mainly due to lack of materials, including car factories in South Korea, Japan, and Europe, which were suspended due to lack of materials. However, because of the rapid spread of the epidemic in Europe and the United States, the problem of shortage of materials has spread to suppliers around the world, and it has brought about a wider range of impacts such as closing factories.
Countries including Italy and Spain have issued blockade orders, and other European countries and the United States have also taken actions. Therefore, since March 16, various automakers have announced the closure of European and North American factories. The current period of closure is mostly 1 to 2 weeks. During this period, follow-up plans will be evaluated.
Affected by the epidemic and the stock market crash caused by the recent oil war, the characteristics of car purchases and high value of vehicles will inevitably delay or disappear demand. It is estimated that global car sales in the first quarter of 2020 will shrink by 24% compared with the same period last year. As many countries outside mainland China are still at the peak of the epidemic, it is expected that the second quarter will also be greatly affected, causing most demand to be deferred to the second half of the year.